Learning from a rival bank and lending boom

When bankers observe a rival winning in the interbank competition for lending to a firm, they infer that the firm may be more promising than they had thought. From this consideration, they loosen their creditworthiness tests and lower the interest rates they offer in the next lending competition for the firm. Increased interbank competition reduces the impact of this observational learning and decreases the credit risk taken by each bank because of a severe winner's curse, while it increases the aggregate risk taken by the entire banking sector.     

Entrepreneurial team's risk-based decision-making: A dynamic game analysis

It is well-known that some cognitive factors such as opportunity perception and risk perception influence entrepreneurial risk-based decision-making (RBDM). This paper proposes some rules of entrepreneur's risk decision-learning to address this RBDM taking cognitive factors into consideration. The learning mechanisms of entrepreneurial team's RBDM is derived based on entrepreneur's perception evolution. The paper employs a system dynamics model to analyze the entrepreneurial team's risk decision-learning. A case study is conducted to demonstrate the entrepreneurial RBDM process with cognitive factors.     

Lean principles, learning, and knowledge work: Evidence from a software services provider

In this paper, we examine the applicability of lean production to knowledge work by investigating the implementation of a lean production system at an Indian software services firm. We first discuss specific aspects of knowledge work—task uncertainty, process invisibility, and architectural ambiguity—that call into question the relevance of lean production in this setting. Then, combining a detailed case study and empirical analysis, we find that lean software projects perform better than non-lean software projects at the company for most performance outcomes. We document the influence of the lean initiative on internal processes and examine how the techniques affect learning by improving both problem identification and problem resolution. Finally, we extend the lean production framework by highlighting the need to (1) identify problems early in the process and (2) keep problems and solutions together in time, space, and person.     

Every ending is a new beginning: Poignancy increases consumer preferences for self-made products

Retailers and brands such as IKEA, Home Depot, and Build-a-Bear encourage consumers to ‘make’ their products rather than be passive recipients. While a growing literature explores ‘why’ consumers purchase self-made products, it is less understood ‘how’ marketers can develop effective advertising and marketing communications to promote such products. Building on the functionalist framework of emotion, the present research explores the potential of a mixed emotional appeal – poignancy – that may be useful in enhancing consumer preferences for self-made products. Notably, this effect is mediated by a fresh start mindset and openness to learning. The effect is also attenuated among consumers with a low personal control. In addition to having substantive practical implications to marketers in developing effective communication strategies, this research offers a novel perspective on the effect of poignancy on consumer decision making.     

Dynamic technological learning trends in Turkish manufacturing industries

Efficient development of industries requires a broad range of technological capabilities which can be acquired only by a long process of learning. Continuous measuring and monitoring of the ever-changing technological learning would be useful for building technological capability and managing technological policies. Nevertheless, research on how to measure the technological learning over time at macro levels remains largely untouched. In this paper, by adding the experience curve into the multifactor productivity part of Neoclassical production function, we will develop a model which will allow one to estimate the technological learning levels over long periods. This model would allow a user to both estimate the past learning experiences and forecast its future path on a time varying basis. The model has been used and tested in the estimation of the annual technological learning values for 28 Turkish manufacturing industries from 1981 to 2000.     

Underwriter learning about unfamiliar firms: Evidence from the history of biotech IPOS

This study examines the ability of underwriters to properly value unfamiliar firms prior to issuance. I use a sample of IPOs in biotechnology, a relatively new but thriving industry. The first American biotech IPO was in 1980. Through the end of 2004, almost 500 biotech IPOs have appeared in the public market. I find that biotechnology differs from other industries in the attributes of individual firms valued by the market. In particular, R&D and the quality of human capital (e.g., star scientists on the staff) are much more important for biotech valuations. I find also that underwriters appeared not to appreciate this distinction for early biotech IPOs; in those cases, first-day market returns were predictable by firm attributes not used by underwriters to establish IPO issue prices. I also find that underwriters have learned over time, albeit slowly. Over the 20+ years of biotech history, IPO issue prices have become more dependent on firm attributes unique to biotechs while first-day market returns have become less predictable.     

施工项目资金运用的预测

章借鉴国外在学习曲线研究和应用成果，将学习曲线应用于工程施工的资金运用预测上，得到非常有价值的结果。     

Linear learning in changing environments

The decision maker receives signals imperfectly correlated with an unobservable state variable and must take actions whose payoffs depend on the state. The state randomly changes over time. In this environment, we examine the performance of simple linear updating rules relative to Bayesian learning. We show that a range of parameters exists for which linear learning results in exactly the same decisions as Bayesian learning, although not in the same beliefs. Outside this parameter range, we use simulations to demonstrate that the consumption level attainable under the optimal linear rule is virtually indistinguishable from the one attainable under Bayes’ rule, although the respective decisions will not always be identical. These results suggest that simple rules of thumb can have an advantage over Bayesian updating when more complex calculations are more costly to perform than less complex ones. We demonstrate the implications of such an advantage in an evolutionary model where agents “learn to learn.”     

“汉字易学”论的理论偏差与证据缺陷

正确对待和认识汉语和汉字在语文教学中有重要理论意义。＂汉字易学＂论批评了＂汉字难学＂谬论,维持了汉字在民族语言中的基础地位,但在理论上又走向了另一个极端。＂汉字易学＂论以字本位为理论基础,抹杀了汉字和汉语的区别,混淆了语言系统和文字系统两个概念,否定了汉字本质上是记录语言的符号。＂汉字易学＂论缺乏必要的理论基础,将语言习得等同于语文教学,违背了语言习得基本理论,既不利于汉字和汉语本身的认识,也不利于语文教学。     

西学东渐与清末民初安徽传统社会观念风气变化

社会观念、社会风气的转变是社会变迁的一个重要方面。清末民初安徽传统的"重义理,轻艺事"观念、"重农轻商""重儒轻商"观念的动摇,男女平等观念开始出现端倪,旧的生活方式和政治生活方式的些许变化及读新书、阅报刊、学外语、出国留学等新风气的出现,表明清末民初安徽传统的社会观念、社会风气在一定程度上、一定范围内有了异于传统的变化。这些变化,既是外力冲击的结果,也是安徽自身为适应时代的变化而不断自我调整的结果。但这些变化主要是发生在城市、城镇及社会上层,广大农村及社会下层的观念、风气还是较为保守的,对安徽社会来说,要使变化从点发展到面,从上延伸到下,还需要一段路程要走。